Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 30, 2021

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Tue Sep 08 20:41:53 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The phenomenon of polls recently underestimating Republican support in heavily WWC areas is well-known. But Democrats have often beat their polls in the past couple of cycles in Hispanic-heavy states like AZ, NV, TX and CA (though *not* FL, notably). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are some parallels between Biden's apparent gains in polls with white noncollege voters and Trump's apparent gains with Hispanics. Both are probably real, and in general you should trust the polls IMO, but these groups have been sources of polling error in the past. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We ran 12 updates to our model today. Here's how Biden's odds changed over the course of the day. Riveting stuff. 71% (overnight) 72% (6 AM) 72% (7 AM) 72% (10 AM) 72% (10:30 AM) 72% (10:50 AM) 71% (1 PM) 71% (1:20 PM) 71% (2 PM) 71% (3 PM) 72% (4 PM) 71% (5 PM) 71% (6 PM) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 8, 2020 Hibernated