Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Sep 08 17:23:22 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So rather than either unskew this poll (sure, there are crosstabs you can critique... but that's true in every poll!) *or* treat it as the new normal, it's probably best to toss it into the model, which can figure out how much to hedge it against other polls and other data. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

At the same time, when you see the polls move strongly in one swing state when they aren't doing so in other swing states (Biden's polling has been good in WI, AZ lately, etc.) and there's no particular reason to expect the state to behave differently, it is often a quirk. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 8, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Florida's likelihood of being the tipping-point state has declined a fair bit as it has moved away from the national averages. Until fairly recently, it was basically tied with PA for No. 1. Now it's more in a group with WI, MN, MI, AZ and NC. https://t.co/viTrjbCt4b — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 8, 2020 Hibernated