Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Sat Sep 05 23:52:27 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Another thing that doesn't make any sense about betting markets is that their state-by-state odds are very close to 538's projections but their national projections are quite different. https://t.co/qpmkmQfImF https://t.co/Yy9OXpC5N5 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For now, most of Trump's ~30% winning chances stem from the fact that there are still 2 months to go and the race doesn't have to tighten that much for the Electoral College to be competitive. But if the polls still look like this in Nov. his chances will be lower (~10% or so). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 5, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I don't know how the contracts at these markets are written to account for cases where, say, Trump doesn't concede the election. Apart from something like that, it doesn't make any sense to have Biden in the 60s in the tipping-point states but only 53% to win nationally. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 5, 2020 Hibernated