Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 24, 2021

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Fri Sep 04 14:27:00 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This also helps to explain why prediction markets have been largely unable to beat publicly-available polling-based models (e.g. 538's) over the years. The polling averages already account for many of the desirable characteristics of markets. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

People neglect the degree to which polling averages are themselves sort of a market-driven consensus. Their power of these averages comes as much from the fact that they incorporate different views about the electorate as that they provide for a larger sample size. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Market participants don't really get this IMO, so the markets sometimes wind up doing a sort of double-counting. They'll say "polls were skewed against Trump in 2016, so they might be again in 2020". Not at all crazy! But the polling averages *may already be accounting for this*. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 4, 2020 Hibernated