Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 24, 2021

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Fri Sep 04 14:22:11 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

People neglect the degree to which polling averages are themselves sort of a market-driven consensus. Their power of these averages comes as much from the fact that they incorporate different views about the electorate as that they provide for a larger sample size. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

There are a handful of polling firms (e.g. Trafalgar and Rasmussen) that rather explicitly operate on the premise other polls are skewed against Trump. Including them in your polling averages (as 538 does) means the averages *are* accounting for a smidgen of a "shy Trump" effect. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This also helps to explain why prediction markets have been largely unable to beat publicly-available polling-based models (e.g. 538's) over the years. The polling averages already account for many of the desirable characteristics of markets. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 4, 2020 Hibernated