Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 17, 2021

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Wed Sep 02 13:22:56 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That is, in the stretch run of a campaigns, voters may treat approval as tantamount to a horse-race question. If nothing else, the RNC may have convinced soft disapprovers of Trump *who were planning to vote for him anyway* that he'd done enough to merit their approval, too. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is one reason we think it's weird to use approval rating as a "fundamental" input in a predictive model. In the previous election with an incumbent (2012), Obama's approval rating *converged toward the Obama-Romney numbers* & not the other way around. Maybe same this year. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One other thought: I think there may have been a missed opportunity for Trump to run on a theme of *recovery*, bolstered by improving economic and COVID-19 numbers. Obviously this is dependent on those #'s continuing to improve—but may be a better choice given his other options. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated