Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 17, 2021

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Wed Sep 02 13:18:48 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is one reason we think it's weird to use approval rating as a "fundamental" input in a predictive model. In the previous election with an incumbent (2012), Obama's approval rating *converged toward the Obama-Romney numbers* & not the other way around. Maybe same this year. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Interestingly, Trump's approval rating is improving more than his horse-race numbers. It's now merely -7.1 in polls of likely/registered voters, essentially identical to his position in head-to-head polls against Biden. https://t.co/9cVjj8v9uN — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

That is, in the stretch run of a campaigns, voters may treat approval as tantamount to a horse-race question. If nothing else, the RNC may have convinced soft disapprovers of Trump *who were planning to vote for him anyway* that he'd done enough to merit their approval, too. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated