Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 15, 2021

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Wed Sep 02 12:43:55 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

FWIW this is similar to the educated guesses about convention bounces our model made ahead of time. It would have expected a slightly higher peak for Biden (10-11) although not really a lot of between-convention polls to measure it. But winding up at ~7 post-RNC is right in line. https://t.co/SZHwlMSyTI — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, our national polling average was at Biden +8.4 when the DNC began, peaked at Biden +9.3, and is now at Biden +7.2 after quite a few national polls overnight. You'd still like a couple more live-caller polls, but it should be a decently robust estimate. https://t.co/cy51vc5isJ https://t.co/thejXk0vJ0 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It would also expect Trump to lose ~1 point of that bounce, in which case we'd be back to +8, although with economic data improving it still does expect some tightening down the stretch run. Overall, the outlook hasn't changed much (Trump ~30% to win). https://t.co/ajG88SznSA https://t.co/qsTivJphCS — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 2, 2020 Hibernated