Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Sep 01 16:00:30 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

When will the next major "realignment" be? Probably not this year. But, maybe! Or there could be some one-off weirdness caused by the economy, by COVID-19, or by an abrupt increase in mail voting. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Further, the map from 2000-2016 was unusually stable by historical standards. There have been SOME shifts (Ohio getting redder, Missouri getting bluer) but these are small in comparison to how much the map would typically change over 16 years. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So again, there's a balancing act here, but we think it's appropriate to make fairly conservative choices *especially* when it comes to the tails of your distributions. Historically this has led 538 to well-calibrated forecasts (our 20%s really mean 20%). https://t.co/8oqu1OmvAz — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated