Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 15, 2021

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Tue Sep 01 16:00:29 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you're backtesting, you can make highly precise state-by-state predictions (using some combination of polls and priors) in most recent elections (2004, 2008, 2012) but these wouldn't have been especially good in 2016 and many years before 2000 produce big surprises. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But we want our projections to reflect real-world uncertainties as much as possible, including model specification error. There are many gray areas here, and there are certain contingencies we don't account for (e.g. widespread election tampering) but that is the general idea. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

(I don't want to overly harp on 2016, but it's not unconcerning. If you think there's a secular trend toward polls/forecasts being more accurate, then 2016 being quite a bit less accurate than 2004/08/12, especially for state-by-state forecasts, is problematic.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated