Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 15, 2021

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Tue Sep 01 16:00:28 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But we want our projections to reflect real-world uncertainties as much as possible, including model specification error. There are many gray areas here, and there are certain contingencies we don't account for (e.g. widespread election tampering) but that is the general idea. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We spend a lot of time setting up these mechanics. It's a hard problem. It's tricky because it's hard to distinguish say a 1-in-1,000 chance from a 1-in-100,000 chance given the paucity of data in presidential elections. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you're backtesting, you can make highly precise state-by-state predictions (using some combination of polls and priors) in most recent elections (2004, 2008, 2012) but these wouldn't have been especially good in 2016 and many years before 2000 produce big surprises. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated