Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Sep 01 16:00:27 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you look through these, you can usually find a few maps that look *pretty* weird (say, Biden winning GA but losing FL) and maybe 1 or 2 that look *really* weird. This is how the model is supposed to work accounting for a small chance of fat-tailed errors. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, every time we run our presidential model, we show 100 maps on our interactive. The maps are randomly selected, more or less, out of the 40,000 simulations we conduct with each model run. People really like looking at these but they can sometimes yield misconceptions. THREAD https://t.co/JceoiXMed7 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

But it's important to keep in mind that if we happen to show a given map out of the sample of 100 the program randomly selects, that doesn't mean it has a 1 in 100 chance of occurring. The odds of that *exact* scenario might be 1 in 10,000 or 1 in a million, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated