Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked March 13, 2021

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Tue Sep 01 16:00:26 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So, every time we run our presidential model, we show 100 maps on our interactive. The maps are randomly selected, more or less, out of the 40,000 simulations we conduct with each model run. People really like looking at these but they can sometimes yield misconceptions. THREAD https://t.co/JceoiXMed7 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I think it probably finds a receptive audience. There are plenty of MAGA bros in the financial sector who often hold somewhat half-baked theories about politics and hold them *very* confidently. Also plenty of Democrats in finance who think "polls always get it wrong". — PolitiTweet.org

It's kind of amazing to me some of the things that get sold to clients as financial research. https://t.co/ckXOqCj7D5

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you look through these, you can usually find a few maps that look *pretty* weird (say, Biden winning GA but losing FL) and maybe 1 or 2 that look *really* weird. This is how the model is supposed to work accounting for a small chance of fat-tailed errors. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Sept. 1, 2020 Hibernated