Tweet by @NateSilver538

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This also gives you a bit of insight into how our model works. If, on August 31, a candidate is projected to win in the decisive state by 3 points, how does that translate into a *probability* of victory? He (Biden in this case) wins about 2 out of 3 times, our model is saying. — PolitiTweet.org

If you want to get nit-picky the gap is probably more like 3 points than 4. Our model currently has Biden projected… https://t.co/PaPL1P5VBC

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I guess everybody is just going to go ahead and attribute any polling movement to Kenosha/Portland when the prior should just be that it's a convention bounce, and seemingly not an especially large bounce at that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

To me, that seems pretty sensible. A 3-point forecasting error for an election that's still 2+ months away is going to be fairly common. There's a contingent on here that's like "why does 538's model show so much uncertainty!" but that doesn't seem like a ton of uncertainty IMO. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated