Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Mon Aug 31 20:51:49 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I guess everybody is just going to go ahead and attribute any polling movement to Kenosha/Portland when the prior should just be that it's a convention bounce, and seemingly not an especially large bounce at that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If you want to get nit-picky the gap is probably more like 3 points than 4. Our model currently has Biden projected to win the popular vote by 5.7 points (note this assumes some further tightening) while he's projected to win by 2.9 in the average tipping-point state. — PolitiTweet.org

Also the generally accepted "Biden needs to win by 4 to win at all" wisdom means liberals now freak out if Biden is… https://t.co/0qyADIBVMW

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This also gives you a bit of insight into how our model works. If, on August 31, a candidate is projected to win in the decisive state by 3 points, how does that translate into a *probability* of victory? He (Biden in this case) wins about 2 out of 3 times, our model is saying. — PolitiTweet.org

If you want to get nit-picky the gap is probably more like 3 points than 4. Our model currently has Biden projected… https://t.co/PaPL1P5VBC

Posted Aug. 31, 2020 Hibernated