Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Sun Aug 30 14:55:14 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If we get down to Biden +4/5 or something, that's different, and about the point at which the speculation starts to be justified. But we haven't seen numbers like that yet, and I'm not sure it's particularly likely that we will in the short term. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

If we go from Biden +9 pre-RNC to say Biden +7 post-RNC once we get more polling, I'm not sure that speaks favorably to Trump's re-election odds or to his message working. Bounces are typically a bit larger, in fact, and the post-RNC period should be a high-water mark for Trump. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 30, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Given the lack of polling evidence so far, are there good priors to assume Kenosha will help Trump? I don't know about that either. Consider: 1. The unrest is happening while he is president; 2. Trump's standing in the polls WORSENED in June amid outbreaks of violence; — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 30, 2020 Hibernated