Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Sat Aug 22 13:05:38 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

You might say "it *was* a real struggle" and I guess it was in some states but others locked down for months. And there's some tension between how lockdowns poll (popular!l) and people's revealed preferences. But overall Americans have been more lockdown-tolerant than I expected. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I was sort of the opposite, LOL. I kind of assumed during that time Americans wouldn't put up with the sort of lockdowns they had in China. Then by March I thought lockdowns would last a few weeks then it would be a real struggle to get people to abide by them after that. — PolitiTweet.org

The notes I have seem to suggest I thought we were going to see a really draconian response with martial law and se… https://t.co/6s06lEzZdN

Posted Aug. 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

See, this is why the "fundamentals" are kind of overrated. It's not at all obvious that they would have favored Bush in 1988 or Clinton in 1992 **unless you know the outcomes in advance**. — PolitiTweet.org

In both of these examples, the polls moved toward the fundamentals. The difference today is that the fundamentals a… https://t.co/GehJHR9nGC

Posted Aug. 22, 2020 Hibernated