Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Aug 18 20:34:35 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

* Actions that excite your own party's base often also rile up the other party's base. So even if the net impact on swing voters was neutral (which it often *isn't*) these actions won't necessarily result in a net increase in turnout. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Yeah, this. Also important to keep a couple of related points in mind: * Switching a vote from D to R or R to D has twice the impact of turning someone out who wouldn't otherwise. i.e. instead of going from 0 to +1, you're going from -1 to +1 for a net gain of 2. — PolitiTweet.org

@Noahpinion This view is popular but it’s completely wrong. Roughly 90% of the change from 2012 to 2016 and 2016 to… https://t.co/KGPud0M025

Posted Aug. 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

People cite Trump as a counterexample. But he arguably proves the point. The GOP lost the House popular vote in the midterms by 9 points. And now they're on track (obviously polls can change) to lose both the House and presidential popular votes by 8-9 points again. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 18, 2020 Hibernated