Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Sat Aug 15 14:31:13 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Plus keep in mind that outliers do happen. One in 20 cases fall outside the margin of error. We update the model several times each day; you're going to have a couple of outliers a week. Bottom line: do not sweat a change unless it's AT LEAST 2 full points, e.g. from 30% to 32%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is one reason why we aren't listing the decimal, i.e. why we list Trump's win probability as 28% rather than 28.2%. Of course, this leads to another issue. The probability could change from say 27.51% to 27.49% and it would like it had shifted a full point (from 28% to 27%). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The other frequent culprit behind "unexpected" swings is a big change in one of the variables we use in our economic index, including the stock market. We'll soon have ways for you to download the economic index so you can see when it has changed. OK, boring thread over. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 15, 2020 Hibernated