Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Sat Aug 15 14:27:27 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

This is one reason why we aren't listing the decimal, i.e. why we list Trump's win probability as 28% rather than 28.2%. Of course, this leads to another issue. The probability could change from say 27.51% to 27.49% and it would like it had shifted a full point (from 28% to 27%). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Boring post. But if you're asking "why did 538's numbers change?", keep in mind that there is a tiny bit of sampling error. We run 40,000 simulations with each model run, which translates to a margin of error of around* 0.5%. * Less than that for probabilities close to 0 or 100 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 15, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Plus keep in mind that outliers do happen. One in 20 cases fall outside the margin of error. We update the model several times each day; you're going to have a couple of outliers a week. Bottom line: do not sweat a change unless it's AT LEAST 2 full points, e.g. from 30% to 32%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 15, 2020 Hibernated