Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Fri Aug 14 13:28:00 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Maybe it's my background as a poker player, but distinguishing between a 28% chance and a 11% chance ... you'd be thrilled to get your money in with that sort of edge. Elections are different, and there's much higher model specification uncertainty, but it's still fairly big. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Some stuff I agree with here, but I *don't* agree with the idea that an 89% forecast (Economist) and a 72% forecast (538) are close. Maybe easier to see if you compare a 28% chance of Trump winning to 11%; we think a Trump win is 2-3x as likely. https://t.co/ptN9d6z5P5 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also keep in mind that these probabilities are drawn from distributions that stretch out on the tails. It doesn't take a lot to go from say 50% to 54% (so those forecasts are ~identical) but it DOES take a lot to go from 95% to 99% (so those are quite different) https://t.co/HbSJcpbW0Y — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 14, 2020 Hibernated