Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 12 20:44:29 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Note that **if** he holds his current lead, Biden's win probability will begin to increase in our forecast with the passage of time. But that will be a very gradual effect at first and then might get more noticeable as of say mid-late September. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We've also run our forecast retroactively back to June. If you squint, It's shown a *very* modest improvement in Trump's chances over that period. But that's mostly because economic indicators have looked better lately, not the polls. https://t.co/ajG88SznSA https://t.co/ldK6pHTu4E — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

We randomly* pick from among 40,000 simulations to show as the sample maps so there are going to be weird 1-in-10,000 or 1-in-40,000 outliers sometimes! That's part of the "fun" of our new interactive. — PolitiTweet.org

In what world do LA and GA go blue as ME, NH, and NC go red? https://t.co/gPXMdr5F6T

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated