Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 12 19:40:50 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @SethS_D It's incorporated into overall uncertainty. The model basically assumes that polls are a pretty rough guide until you're clear of the conventions by ~30 days or so. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @SethS_D The convention bounce adjustments arguably are a bit hackish. But that's precisely why one needs to be wary of overconfident models! Models make lots of little hacks to improve in-sample fit that usually result in deterioration in out-of-sample performance! — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @SethS_D So if no polls used education weighting, you'd shift all of the polls toward Trump? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated