Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 12 19:21:46 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @SethS_D "Account[ing] for partisan non-response and weighting problems in polls" seems like a pretty hack-ish way to backfit the 2016 result better. It's exactly the sort of thing that could lead to overfitting out of sample. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @SethS_D I'm not a huge fan of betting markets. But you don't think there's *any* chance that your model is more than "5% too high" when betting markets only have Biden at 60%? And the only surviving model (ours) with an out-of-sample track record has him at 70%? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @SethS_D But the broader question is: Do you think your model describes the real-world probability that Biden wins? (Assuming the election is not stolen, both candidates make it to election day etc.) Or is it some sort of conditional prediction? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated