Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 12 19:14:34 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @SethS_D I'm not a huge fan of betting markets. But you don't think there's *any* chance that your model is more than "5% too high" when betting markets only have Biden at 60%? And the only surviving model (ours) with an out-of-sample track record has him at 70%? — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @SethS_D You may not make the same mistakes as models did in 2016 or as Wang did in 2004. But you may make different mistakes. Given the nature of election data (small n's, lots of covariance), it's way easier to make mistakes that result in overconfidence than under-confidence. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @SethS_D "Account[ing] for partisan non-response and weighting problems in polls" seems like a pretty hack-ish way to backfit the 2016 result better. It's exactly the sort of thing that could lead to overfitting out of sample. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated