Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 12 18:43:53 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @SethS_D For context, 97% is what we get for Biden's popular vote win probability **if we run our model as a now-cast**. So your model is basically as confident on Aug. 12 as ours will be on Election Day. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris Not really. A Biden win in a sample size of n=1 wouldn't provide all that much info to distinguish a "Biden is 90%" hypothesis from a "Biden is 70%" hypothesis. A Trump win would provide slightly more, but still not a ton. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @SethS_D I would say the empirical track record of election models being overconfident, e.g. several models in 2016, Sam Wang with Kerry at 97% in 2004, the often disastrous performance of "fundamentals" models out of sample, is relevant here. https://t.co/uzhRzj9s2F — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated