Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 12 18:35:30 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris Not really. A Biden win in a sample size of n=1 wouldn't provide all that much info to distinguish a "Biden is 90%" hypothesis from a "Biden is 70%" hypothesis. A Trump win would provide slightly more, but still not a ton. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris It's captured in head-to-head polls, though. And using a variable like approval ratings that is extremely collinear with head-to-head polls as a prior is likely to lead to some ugly model specifications that will be fragile out of sample. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @SethS_D For context, 97% is what we get for Biden's popular vote win probability **if we run our model as a now-cast**. So your model is basically as confident on Aug. 12 as ours will be on Election Day. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated