Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 12 17:56:18 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris I think you have this backward. 538's models actually have a good, well-calibrated out-of-sample track record since 2008. We're basically the only model being published this year that has any empirical validation at all, since all the other models from 2016 called it quits. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris Given the parameters of election data and the priors researchers approach them with, there's not really any such thing as "out-of-sample data" except for unknown data, i.e. truly predicting the future. If you don't agree with me on that, these convos probably won't be productive. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris They do happen to improve performance in-sample! But in- sample doesn't matter very much when degrees of freedom far exceed the sample size. And there's no magic you can perform to turn in-sample into out-of-sample data, despite a lot of data science BS to the contrary. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated