Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Aug 12 17:50:33 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris Given the parameters of election data and the priors researchers approach them with, there's not really any such thing as "out-of-sample data" except for unknown data, i.e. truly predicting the future. If you don't agree with me on that, these convos probably won't be productive. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @nataliemj10 And in cases with small sample sizes and high complexity/ "researcher degrees of freedom", the only type of validation that matters anyway is in true prediction where you publish the forecasts ahead of time without knowing the results. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris I think you have this backward. 538's models actually have a good, well-calibrated out-of-sample track record since 2008. We're basically the only model being published this year that has any empirical validation at all, since all the other models from 2016 called it quits. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 12, 2020 Hibernated