Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Aug 11 16:48:55 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The blindingly obvious lesson of 2016 for election modelers is "it's super easy to build an overconfident model, so think carefully about sources of uncertainty" but sometimes people are endlessly creative in finding ways to avoid the obvious lessons. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 11, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@DanRosenheck Yeah, it's fairly inelastic. Unlike AZ (or FL or TX or GA) though it has a Democratic governor, which I can imagine proving to be relevant this year. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 10, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The reason I harp on this so much too is that you *usually* get away with overconfident forecasts, i.e. if your model says something has a 98% chance of happening when it's really 75%, you'll still be right 75% of the time and will say "lol, what was Nate so worked up about?!?". — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 11, 2020 Hibernated