Tweet by @NateSilver538

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Ehh. There's no get-out-of-jail-free pass for designing a p-hacked/overfit model because you say you're not using it for forecasting. Models that don't hold up well in true out-of-sample prediction are usually dubious, and the theories they proffer are often going to be wrong. — PolitiTweet.org

One thing on the polls vs “fundamentals” debate is that modeling designed to improve forecast accuracy and modeling… https://t.co/0AqjBgdIXh

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonathanchait Well, that's why it's a subtle shift! But generally speaking there's a lack of articulation of exit strategies from lockdowns, and to some degree, also a lack of acknowledgment about how costly they are (especially the noneconomic costs). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@mattyglesias Yes, I disagree that there's a difference between "modeling designed to improve forecast accuracy and modeling designed to explore causal theories". I think the best way to test whether causal theories are true is generally through true out-of-sample prediction. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated