Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Thu Aug 06 15:22:51 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@jonathanchait Well, that's why it's a subtle shift! But generally speaking there's a lack of articulation of exit strategies from lockdowns, and to some degree, also a lack of acknowledgment about how costly they are (especially the noneconomic costs). — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

It's a subtle shift, but at some point in the US discourse, closing/locking things down transformed from something you implement for want of better alternatives—and to be clear, in the US, we probably still lack those alternatives—into the default way to fighting the coronavirus. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Ehh. There's no get-out-of-jail-free pass for designing a p-hacked/overfit model because you say you're not using it for forecasting. Models that don't hold up well in true out-of-sample prediction are usually dubious, and the theories they proffer are often going to be wrong. — PolitiTweet.org

One thing on the polls vs “fundamentals” debate is that modeling designed to improve forecast accuracy and modeling… https://t.co/0AqjBgdIXh

Posted Aug. 6, 2020 Hibernated