Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 25, 2021

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Tue Aug 04 20:50:58 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So while we spend a lot of time thinking thru different model specifications, it's mostly *not* about trying to maximize fit on past data. It's more about thinking through edge cases and specifications that will be robust under a variety of conditions. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Like all folks modeling presidential elections, we're forced to use small samples (e.g. n=12) to infer what the broader universe (n=∞) looks like. This is hard! But if you overfit models to past data, you'll often make poor inferences about what unobserved data looks like. — PolitiTweet.org

Saved you some time and transcribed Nate's assessment of economic predictive models. I presume this means that 53… https://t.co/av5kijtZ5E

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The reason we generally prefer polls>economy is because different modeling choices on the economy can yield radically different answers (i.e. a Biden landslide if you look at GDP or a Trump landslide if you look at income) while different polling averages produce similar answers. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted Aug. 4, 2020 Hibernated