Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Wed Jul 29 17:56:20 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In other words, I don't really care if Biden us up 8 nationally or whatever. I care about the numbers in Wisconsin, Florida, etc. But if Biden has gained 2 points in national polls, it's likely that he's also gained ~2 points in Wisconsin & Florida since they were last polled. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's how our model uses national polls. And perhaps it's a good heuristic for other people might think about national polls, also. Pay attention to the trend, not to the level. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 29, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

In theory, you can also impute these trends from state polls (i.e. if Biden is gaining in MI, he's probably gaining in WI) and our model does do that too. But national polls give you a high volume of polls from a relatively constant set of pollsters—making trend detection easier. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 29, 2020 Hibernated