Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Jul 28 17:07:00 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris I am willing to bet that using topline polling data from *many* pollsters is *much* more accurate than using microdata from *one* pollster. And this will likely also lead to fewer issues with correlated errors, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris In fact a big issue with MRP is that it's liable to lead to highly correlated out-of-sample errors from state to state, which likely leads to overconfident probabilistic estimates unless you carefully account for that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris It's not about the implementation. I'm saying that MRP likely produces at best only marginal gains over techniques that rely only upon topline numbers. It just doesn't squeeze that much additional information out of your dataset. And it has a lot of drawbacks. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated