Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked April 27, 2021

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Tue Jul 28 17:04:24 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris In fact a big issue with MRP is that it's liable to lead to highly correlated out-of-sample errors from state to state, which likely leads to overconfident probabilistic estimates unless you carefully account for that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris It was "less biased than the polls in 201"6 based on one pollster running numbers **only after the fact once the results were known** and that probably just reflected the fact that the one poll happened to do a better job of capturing Trump's % of the white working-class vote. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris I am willing to bet that using topline polling data from *many* pollsters is *much* more accurate than using microdata from *one* pollster. And this will likely also lead to fewer issues with correlated errors, etc. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 28, 2020 Hibernated