Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 3, 2021

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Sun Jul 26 21:52:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan More like 60-65% given if you account for the vig. We are not done with our model yet but I think that is probably mispriced, yes. And the high-profile events are often the worst (most mispriced) ones. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So although swing states come and go (Vermont was once a swing state!) one thing you see here is that the Electoral College really does create a bias toward people in smaller states which have more EV's per voter. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@joshtpm @mattyglesias Yeah, if you have like 5 weeks of basically unchecked spread at R=2.5 or R=3.0 starting on ~February 10 and continuing until ~March 15, that's going to give you a LOT of cases ... somewhere on the order of 1000x whatever your original cluster was. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated