Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 3, 2021

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Sun Jul 26 21:28:19 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So although swing states come and go (Vermont was once a swing state!) one thing you see here is that the Electoral College really does create a bias toward people in smaller states which have more EV's per voter. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here are top states for average VPI since 1968 based on 538 backtested simulations: 1. New Hampshire 3.9 2. New Mexico 3.0 3. Nevada 2.8 4. Iowa 2.5 5. Ohio 2.5 6. Vermont 2.2 7. Maine 2.2 8. Colorado 2.1 9. Pennsylvania 2.1 10. Delaware 2.1 11. Wisconsin 2.0 12. Missouri 1.9 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@BrendanNyhan More like 60-65% given if you account for the vig. We are not done with our model yet but I think that is probably mispriced, yes. And the high-profile events are often the worst (most mispriced) ones. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated