Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Jan. 3, 2021

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Sun Jul 26 21:26:32 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's a calculation we call the Voter Power Index. The states where, in elections since 1968, a voter had the greatest chance of determining the winner of the Electoral College. For instance, a VPI of 2.5x means a was 2.5 times more influential than an average American's. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thecity2 Yeah. Like, even if you badly misprice things such that you have a -15% ROI, that's really not *that* expensive if you're only making bets once every 4 years. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here are top states for average VPI since 1968 based on 538 backtested simulations: 1. New Hampshire 3.9 2. New Mexico 3.0 3. Nevada 2.8 4. Iowa 2.5 5. Ohio 2.5 6. Vermont 2.2 7. Maine 2.2 8. Colorado 2.1 9. Pennsylvania 2.1 10. Delaware 2.1 11. Wisconsin 2.0 12. Missouri 1.9 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated