Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Jan. 3, 2021

Created

Sun Jul 26 19:34:09 +0000 2020

Likes

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@thecity2 Yeah. Like, even if you badly misprice things such that you have a -15% ROI, that's really not *that* expensive if you're only making bets once every 4 years. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

IMO this reflects a combination of: * Modeling being fairly challenging (so most traders don't have good priors to anchor to) * Traders are emotionally invested in political outcomes * Herd mentality very strong in politics * Markets not super liquid — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Here's a calculation we call the Voter Power Index. The states where, in elections since 1968, a voter had the greatest chance of determining the winner of the Electoral College. For instance, a VPI of 2.5x means a was 2.5 times more influential than an average American's. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 26, 2020 Hibernated