Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Thu Jul 23 18:11:16 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I wouldn't totally sleep on Nevada and New Hampshire as factors, by the way. Yeah, Nevada's getting bluer, but it was a very good state for Trump in the (2016) primary and a poor one for Biden. And New Hampshire is weird and nearly went for Trump in 2016. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Rather small gap at the moment between tipping-point state polls and national polls: National: Biden +7.7 Florida: Biden +7.5 New Hampshire: Biden +7.1 Michigan: Biden +7.0 Pennsylvania: Biden +6.7 Wisconsin: Biden +6.6 Nevada: Biden +6.5 https://t.co/nWUo9X5F4y https://t.co/D0IccKEzCL — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Also, empirically, the best way to forecast the popular vote is to forecast the result in each state and combine them, rather than to use national polls. We don't have that calculation yet but will soon. Might yield a different impression of the popular vote vs. EC gap. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 23, 2020 Hibernated