Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Thu Jul 23 01:49:17 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

As an FYI, there have been a fairly high number of polls with partisan sponsors in the presidential race this year. (Usually these are more common in races for Congress.) We DO include these polls in our averages, which is a change from the past, but with an adjustment. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Well, this was a pretty miserable day, and seeing weekday death tolls >1,000 may be the new normal for a bit. There are real signs of improvement in AZ and of plateaus in FL and TX. But between deaths lagging cases and other states getting worse, it's not a pretty picture. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 23, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Namely, we use a stricter house effects adjustment; the model assumes that these polls are biased until proven otherwise. And it weights them less. However, for boring technical reasons, the model wasn't catching all the partisan polls and adjusting them like it was supposed to. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 23, 2020 Hibernated