Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Wed Jul 22 21:21:25 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Couple of good articles out today on immunity and the "can you get COVID-19 twice?" question. Much better and more nuanced (and *mostly* fairly reassuring, though not completely so!) than some of the other coverage I've seen. https://t.co/RPNcgeKGgj https://t.co/bIlRYH6Al8 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I know that's pretty basic stuff, but there's a lot of hard work that goes into distinguishing the 90 percent chances from the 95s, and the 95s from the 98s, and the 98s from the 99.5s. And you have to think carefully about the structure of your data & model for these edge cases. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

One thing I'd add is that if you take the "immunity disappears after 3 months!" headlines completely at face value, you'd have expected to see tens or even 100s of thousands of re-infections by now given that there were already millions of people infected 3 months ago. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2020 Hibernated