Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

Deleted No

Hibernated Yes

Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

Created

Wed Jul 22 19:54:21 +0000 2020

Likes

892

Retweets

Source

Twitter Web App

View Raw Data

JSON Data

View on Twitter

Likely Available

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I know that's pretty basic stuff, but there's a lot of hard work that goes into distinguishing the 90 percent chances from the 95s, and the 95s from the 98s, and the 98s from the 99.5s. And you have to think carefully about the structure of your data & model for these edge cases. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2020 Hibernated

Preceded By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

For instance, a forecast saying there's an 85% chance of an event and a forecast saying there's 98% chance may sound similarly confident. But in the former case, the event will fail to occur around 1 in 6 times, while it's 1 in 50 times in the latter case. Big difference. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2020 Hibernated

Followed By

Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Couple of good articles out today on immunity and the "can you get COVID-19 twice?" question. Much better and more nuanced (and *mostly* fairly reassuring, though not completely so!) than some of the other coverage I've seen. https://t.co/RPNcgeKGgj https://t.co/bIlRYH6Al8 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 22, 2020 Hibernated