Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Mon Jul 20 18:26:19 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

The case for high uncertainty: * Extremely high economic uncertainty * A huge amount of news, mostly around COVID, could create further shocks (yes, this can be quantified to some extent) * Uncertainties around voting mechanics during a pandemic may make polling (& voting) harder — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Basically, this election presents a mix of reasons to think uncertainty could be higher *or lower* than usual. The case for low uncertainty: * Polls have been stable * High polarization likely = lower volatility * Relatively few undecided voters * No major third-party candidate — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Which one wins out? Well, we're actually trying to quantify that. But a decent prior is probably just that uncertainty should be somewhere around average. What I wouldn't want to do is take stuff from the 1st list that lowers uncertainty in my model *while ignoring the 2nd list*. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 20, 2020 Hibernated