Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Mon Jul 20 17:30:07 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And if polls and "fundamentals" align (as they do this year; Trump is down by about the amount he "should" be) it might make you modestly more confident in the outcome, but not dramatically so. There is a long history of econ models being overconfident. https://t.co/uzhRzj9s2F — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So while I'm a fan of using an economic prior in your presidential model (we do so in ours) it requires a fairly light touch. It might gently nudge the outcome from the current position in the polls, but it probably shouldn't do more than that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

People might object to going back all the way to 1880. But in some ways, late 19c and early 20c elections are a *better* match for the chaotic conditions of an election amidst a global pandemic than say an election amid a standard postwar recession. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 20, 2020 Hibernated