Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Mon Jul 20 17:27:45 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

So while I'm a fan of using an economic prior in your presidential model (we do so in ours) it requires a fairly light touch. It might gently nudge the outcome from the current position in the polls, but it probably shouldn't do more than that. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And that assumes you know what economic conditions will look like in November, which in July you don't. This year in particular, we estimate that economic uncertainty is 2-3x higher than usual. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

And if polls and "fundamentals" align (as they do this year; Trump is down by about the amount he "should" be) it might make you modestly more confident in the outcome, but not dramatically so. There is a long history of econ models being overconfident. https://t.co/uzhRzj9s2F — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 20, 2020 Hibernated