Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Mon Jul 20 17:19:10 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I've posted versions of this before, but here's what you get if you run a model back to 1880 that tries to predict presidential elections based on a broad-based index of economic conditions and incumbency status, with an adjustment for polarization. It does *OK* but not *great*. https://t.co/46vzrSG129 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Basically, many things lately have reinforced a view of medium-term pessimism + long-term optimism and a lot of what I'm trying to figure out is when the medium term becomes the long term. Current prior is something like "in stages over the next 2 years"; won't be instantaneous. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

These variables explain about 30% of the variance election outcomes, which means there's 70% that they don't explain. That seems fairly realistic to me. And the average error is around 4 points of the incumbent party's vote *share*, which is around 8 points of vote *margin*. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 20, 2020 Hibernated