Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Mon Jul 20 14:11:06 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

Basically, many things lately have reinforced a view of medium-term pessimism + long-term optimism and a lot of what I'm trying to figure out is when the medium term becomes the long term. Current prior is something like "in stages over the next 2 years"; won't be instantaneous. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

(Also, I'm not sure if this counts as part of "the science", but the studies on immunity have generally had pretty optimistic results if you actually follow the research instead of relying on misleading headlines, though there are a lot of uncertainties/complications.) — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 20, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

I've posted versions of this before, but here's what you get if you run a model back to 1880 that tries to predict presidential elections based on a broad-based index of economic conditions and incumbency status, with an adjustment for polarization. It does *OK* but not *great*. https://t.co/46vzrSG129 — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 20, 2020 Hibernated