Nate Silver

@NateSilver538 ↗

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Last Checked Dec. 30, 2020

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Sat Jul 18 22:00:55 +0000 2020

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @jbview @Nate_Cohn @DanRosenheck @collprof @Michael_Cobb68 It's not clear that you can't account for COVID empirically. We have some ways to account for it. But that notwithstanding, it might lead one to make more conservative choices in model-building overall, certainly including trying to leverage the entire data set... — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @Nate_Cohn @DanRosenheck @collprof @Michael_Cobb68 I think 25:1 (96%) vs. 100:1 (99%) are pretty different forecasts. And the gap in percentage terms will increase if the election gets closer, e.g. maybe you'll have Biden at 95% to win the popular vote with a 6-point lead when he "should" be at 80%. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 18, 2020 Hibernated

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Nate Silver @NateSilver538

@gelliottmorris @jbview @Nate_Cohn @DanRosenheck @collprof @Michael_Cobb68 Or going further back (in our case to 1880) to build the fundamentals part of your model, in which case you'll encounter a lot more weird stuff (World Wars! Depressions! Panics!) that may be a better match for the conditions we face today. — PolitiTweet.org

Posted July 18, 2020 Hibernated